Record numbers of ships report attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with twelve vessels struck between October 5 and 11, according to BBC Verify analysis of data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency. Six of those attacks occurred on Sunday October 6 alone, marking a one-day high. The previous week saw ten reported attacks.
The Nicaragua-flagged tanker Petro Dolphin caught fire after being struck by a drone near the Sohar Anchorage in Oman, more than 250 kilometers from the strait. Eleven Indian seafarers were rescued but two remain missing, according to the Forward Seamen's Union of India. The container ship GFS Pride sank after being hit by an unknown projectile in the strait on Tuesday, with all twenty-one crew members safely evacuated.
Experts attribute the spike to Iran's attempt to reassert control over the waterway as the US military has increased the number of tankers it escorts through the southern part of the strait to avoid Iranian strikes. Martin Kelly, CEO of Orbital Risk Intelligence, told BBC Verify that Iran has "evolved its strategy" and carries out "near daily or multiple attacks every single day" with the aim to "stop the ships going through and to deter others."
The attacks extend far beyond the strait itself. A tanker was struck by multiple projectiles north of Qatar on October 8, more than 500 kilometers from the strait, resulting in multiple reported casualties, according to maritime intelligence firm Vanguard. Another tanker came under attack near the UAE town of Al-Jazirah al-Hamra on October 9.
The rising strike rate coincides with a slowdown in oil shipments. About 12.6 million barrels per day moved through the strait on October 13, down from 15 million reported at the end of September, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler. This remains well below the pre-war baseline of approximately 17 million barrels per day.
The US Navy reports that the number of vessels given assistance to navigate the strait during the first ten days of October jumped 85 percent compared with the same period in August. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has stated that strikes would not remain "limited to the Strait of Hormuz" and announced a "new deployment formation" across the region. US Central Command posted on social media that "commercial traffic continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz with co-ordinated protection from US forces and regional partners."